We [have[n’t]] a[n][re] [agreement][chance][fucked]

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Such is the news from Brackethagen.

We are told that the delegates’ spirits have been raised by the Chair’s proposed draft, especially the money shot below.


(The bolded portions need either one of the suggested text passages in brackets, or something else. Much of the draft looks like this.)

______________________________

A shared vision for long-term cooperative action

3. A long-term aspirational1 and ambitious global goal for emission reductions, as part of the shared vision for long-term cooperative action, should be based on the best available scientific knowledge and supported by medium-term goals for emission reductions, taking into account historical responsibilities and an equitable share in the atmospheric space;

Accordingly:

(a) Parties shall cooperate to avoid dangerous climate change, in keeping with the ultimate objective of the Convention, recognizing [the broad scientific view] that the increase in global average temperature above pre-industrial levels ought not to exceed [2°C][1.5°C];

(b) Parties should2 collectively reduce global emissions by at least [50] [85] [95] per cent from 1990 levels by 2050 and should ensure that global emissions continue to decline thereafter:

(c) Developed country Parties as a group should reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by [75–85] [at least 80–95] [more than 95] per cent from 1990 levels by 2050;

______________________________

1 Why does the word “aspirational” appear with such frequency in all these documents? Alexander Downer, John King Coal Howard’s foreign minister, let the answer slip in a lecture at Monash University in 2007:

you have to face up to the fact that, within the APEC group, there are economies, and it’s really a Kyoto point again, that believe in setting CO2 emission targets, by particular dates. Some of them, of course, are just aspirational targets: which is code for “a political stunt”. An aspirational target is not a real target at all.

I really should lose some weight. Maybe 20 pounds.

2I really should. Whether I will or not, well, we’ll see.

What about the money for developing countries?

______________________________

Enhanced action on the provision of financial resources and investment

39. [Developed country Parties][All Parties, except least developed countries,] shall, beginning in 2013, provide resources based on an [assessed][indicative] scale of contributions] to be adopted by the Conference of the Parties]; (sic – please proofread brackets)

40. To [establish] [define] an [X] body, which shall [work under the [guidance [and authority] of and] be accountable to the Conference of the Parties, [to implement the policies, programme
priorities and eligibility criteria of the financial mechanism]
, pursuant to decision –/CP.15 (Finance);

41. Option 1: [To establish, under the financial mechanism, [a] fund[s] as an operating entity pursuant to Article 11 of the Convention with specialized funding windows;

Option 2: [To establish [, through the [X] body,] [Y] fund with specialized funding windows under the financial mechanism;

42. That the Conference of the Parties shall enter into an arrangement with the [Z], serving as an operating entity of the [fund with specialized funding windows] in accordance with Article 11, paragraph 3, of the Convention;

______________________________

[Potentially] good mid-term goals, but no short term at all. Two degrees probably won’t survive. And no actual carbon goal, aspirational or hard.

We all know that drafts are just a place to begin and are always full of placeholders. But I don’t understand why this would raise any spirits as the press services claim.

Much better, and rallying those serious about accomplishing anything, is the Proposal from the Alliance of Small Island States, which incorporates the best available science and calls for a limit 350 ppm and 1.5 degrees, and envisions a legally binding agreement.

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2 Responses to “We [have[n’t]] a[n][re] [agreement][chance][fucked]”

  1. cometman Says:

    We really ought to be well past the point of aspirational drafts by now. Of course some countries are – the ones who walked out today.

    Thought you might enjoy this if you haven’t seen it – looks like the Yes Men made an appearance at Copenhagen and made Canada look pretty foolish.

    • artemis54 Says:

      Ha! Well done.

      Meanwhile, North American indigenous groups, who have been at COP15 from the beginning, are doing their best to make Harper nice and comfy on arrival:

      In a gesture of hospitality for the Prime Minister and an act of solidarity with communities directly impacted by the tar sands, Indigenous representatives and their allies delivered a gift basket full of Treaties for Prime Minister Harper to honor and/or sign in Copenhagen.

      These included important documents such as the Kyoto Protocol, First Nations Treaties and the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

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